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Reverse engineer broken since latest patch ?


FrancoisTogruta

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I did lots of RE's since 1.2 and everything was going smootly.

 

But since yesterday and today, I am now 0 in 23 for RE-ing "Immunity Enhancement 15"

As I am writing this, I just started another batch of 10, but getting low on ressources.

It does say on the description it is a 20% chance of success... is it really or am I being trolled by the game ?

Even in cases of extreme bad luck, I should've gotten a RE on the 15th try at the very least.

Something to look into as a bug I would say.

 

As for suggesting something to "curve the bad luck strings", please add 5% more sucess chance when you fail a RE on the item. So missing 10 in a row means you are up to 75% chance of sucess. Just throwing numbers, but this is ridiculous. Thank god this isnt an end-game, hard to come with ressources, item.

 

Thanks.

 

[ EDIT: finally got that one RE'd, only took about 25 tries. So much for a 20% chance tho ]

Edited by FrancoisTogruta
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I saw someone put this very well a little while ago, so I'm just gonna paraphrase:

 

Think of it this way. You also have an 80% chance of failing every time you RE something. Although 25 tries is ridiculously rare, it happens. That's statistics.

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As for suggesting something to "curve the bad luck strings", please add 5% more sucess chance when you fail a RE on the item. So missing 10 in a row means you are up to 75% chance of sucess. Just throwing numbers, but this is ridiculous. Thank god this isnt an end-game, hard to come with ressources, item.[ EDIT: finally got that one RE'd, only took about 25 tries. So much for a 20% chance tho ]

 

 

They already did say they were looking into adding something to prevent overly long strings of bad luck.

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Yup....RE has definitely been borked since the mini patch from last week and i don't care what anyone say's about "bad luck" etc.....I've had 'ONE' RE success in the last week over 2 toons and so many attempts i lost count! and more and more peeps are starting to report similar.......It's cost me so much time and lost credits that I've given up crafting now until it's fixed.

 

Add this to not being able to opt out of Hutball, the crazy zone loading times and not auto rejoining your group after a pvp warzone and my days with this game are rapidly coming to an end

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*shrug*

 

I started RE'ng redoubt light armor for my future sin tank starting this weekend. I've learned every piece up to vl 45 (which is where I stop bothering) except for the lvl 37 helm. (which continues to elude me, haven't learned a single schem for that one item) but overall success rate was probably 20% or higher.

 

Also did some biochem, armormech, and armstech REing.

 

Success rates seem to be at least the indicated amount.

 

So sorry, still gonna have to say you're on a bad luck string.

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There's about 1% chance you'd get learning nothing 20 REs in a row.

 

That sounds unlikely until you realize you probably REed far more than 100 items (I certainly have).

 

In fact, if you RE 200 things, it'd be weird to NOT get a string of 20 failures at some point. It'd also be weird to not learn 2 recipes back to back (4% chance) at some point.simply because you're doing this so many times, you're bound to see something unusual.

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To be fair, this RNG seems very streaky. I feel like *most* times I get a success I'm gonna get another success right afterwards. Far more often than just a 1 in 5. Maybe the RNG uses the same seed or something for every 5 second period.
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I think something isnt right. Prototype Skill Barrel 7 I did 54 REs to get the purple. Skill Barrel 9 I did 82 REs and got the purple. This has been the case the last few days. Before then the longest was 12 tries. Now its over 50? 20% chance of success.... There is no way.

 

Oh and greens still getting the prototype by the third try. So green to blue with a 20% is by the third but blue to purple that is supposed to be 20% as well is taking over 50 now. Its the same for my artifice character and my cybertech character. Green to blue = easy. Blue to purple = dang near impossible. But they are supposed to be the same percentage.

 

Something is definately messed up.

 

Tyr

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I have in the last week had from 1 to 20 trys getting pattern....

All nice within the 20%, since that is 20% each time....

 

Hope they figure out some way to prevent people to go on some of those unlucky strikes for ages.......

 

This is the last minutes of 9 houers trying to get 10 heads in a row.

Here there is a 50/50 chance each time.....

 

 

Random is random, and it's a *****....

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If this is true, I'm am going to be extremely discouraged about crafting. I don't understand how they can do a silent nerf on RE to get purple schem, yet I'm getting purple drops off regular NPCs much more than I should be getting. My lvl 25 agent has gotten at least 4. In a regular MMO, you would never get these. I've taken a break from crafting since I've over leveled in crew skills at the moment, but I'll check this out when I get to the next planet.
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<sigh>

 

Yes. This is exactly how RNG works. Let me put it this way. If there was a 99.999% chance of success, then it is entirely possible that 1 in 100,000 would fail. If you you've got a million people crafting (for argument's sake), then 10 of those people may likely fail at something that seems to be a sure bet, ie 99.999%. Now I'm sure each of those 10 people would feel like the system is broken because it failed them. But given a large enough pool, somebody WILL fail.

 

Same is going on here. Given the large pool of crafters, someone IS almost guaranteed to have very bad streaks of luck. In this case, that someone happens to be the OP.

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I started reverse engineering like a madman last week. I kept track of how many REs I did and how many schematics I learned.

 

Between then and the patch on Tuesday I learned 73 schematics, taking 406 tries. That's about 17.98%

 

Since Tuesday morning's patch, I've still been at it, and I was shocked to find that I've RE'd 407 more items (just off by one) and have gotten 74 schematics (again, off by one.) That's 18.18(repeating)%.

 

I counted strings of failures, the first long one last night was 22 between discoveries and the second long one was 28. A couple were in the teens, but for the most part it's consistent with what I'd expect if the RE chance were 20%.

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I had the same problem the other night. I made about 15 blue enhancements and re engineered them to try to get a purple schematic. No luck. I was re-engineering them as soon as they were made. I spoke to a guildie who suggested having ten in my inventory and then renegineering them so I did that and it worked first time. Maybe that's the key?
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Ugh, another RE thread...

 

RE isn't broken. I RE'd schematics for new Lvl 48 shields and generators with my Sentinel today. One for Rusk's generator took two tries, the T7 shield took me five tries. I also managed to RE a schematic for a purple-grade red crystal after four tries.

 

Now to go through this again:

If you have a 20 percent chance to RE, that means you have a 80 percent chance to fail.

This result is INDEPENDENT. There is no cumulative effect that reduces the fail rate after each subsequent failure. So whether you RE the first time or the 1000th time, you always have an 80 percent chance to fail.

 

The probability of failing many times in a row is low, but not impossible. If you flip a coin 20 times, the chance of flipping 20 heads in a row is 1 in 1.05 million. But if you flip 19 heads in a row, you still have a 50 percent chance to flip a tail and a 50 percent chance to flip a head on that 20th flip.

 

Expecting to be "due" is the gambler's fallacy. Although the chance of failing 20 or 50 or 80 times in a row as a whole is small, you still have an 80 percent chance to fail every time you try to RE.

 

Now as to whether the RNG is functioning properly or not, I can't say. But I haven't had any problems. Bad streaks do happen and I haven't noticed any changes recently in that.

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This is a common problem. Bioware says the RE chance for Blue schematics is 20%. Most crafters call that ********. Fanboi defenders say that statistics sometimes suck. No Mr Fanboi, Bioware's RE system sucks.

I'd love to see any facts or proof that 'most' crafters call this b.s.

 

I'm reminded of the Arthur C. Clarke quote: "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

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I started reverse engineering like a madman last week. I kept track of how many REs I did and how many schematics I learned.

 

Between then and the patch on Tuesday I learned 73 schematics, taking 406 tries. That's about 17.98%

 

Since Tuesday morning's patch, I've still been at it, and I was shocked to find that I've RE'd 407 more items (just off by one) and have gotten 74 schematics (again, off by one.) That's 18.18(repeating)%.

 

I counted strings of failures, the first long one last night was 22 between discoveries and the second long one was 28. A couple were in the teens, but for the most part it's consistent with what I'd expect if the RE chance were 20%.

 

Stop it. Science and math hurts peoples brains. Why do you want to hurt people's brains?:rak_04:

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Chance to get purple reserch throught RE is now 10%. I broke 15-20 blue implant, before got purple reserch, but with not-desired characteristics. Crafting at mid-levels was little demand before, and now it is at all a waste of time and money. Edited by Kelord
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Chance to get purple reserch throught RE is now 10%. I broke 15-20 blue implant, before got purple reserch, but with not-desired characteristics. Crafting at mid-levels was little demand before, and now it is at all a waste of time and money.

 

Yes, it was much better when you had an undisclosed chance and your chance would be eaten up by a "You already know that schematic."

 

And as for having 10 items to RE in your inventory, that only works with lottery tickets, not with the game. The real reason why it worked first time is that the moon had risen and was shining over your left shoulder. THAT'S what makes RE work.

(Even the Monte Carlo fallacy makes more sense, "I wuz due!" than that.)

 

Do like I'm doing. Track your RE's long-term. Granted, mine are still a small sample, even though I'm nearing 1k myself.

 

I'll also add this for you to think about: I'm RE'ing items fully, meaning I'm getting EVERY prefix in purple- Anti-Armor, Commander's, Endowment, Exactitude, Expert, Fervor, General's Hawkeye, Leadership, Rampart, Supremacy, Tempest, Vehemence and Veracity. I doubt I'll go much further with this from what I've done, but it's clear to me that now when you've eliminated all other iterations you have a 100% chance to get the last on the next discovery roll. (I.E. when you RE something it will give a chance that you will learn something, where formerly you would get the message "you already know that schematic," now it will reroll the second chance to give you one you didn't have. For that alone everyone new to RE should be grateful. Mind you, I'd already RE'd heavy armor to Hawkeye and/or Overkill up to 30 in artifact and most to Endowment in medium in armormech, so I'd already paid the price on the chancy RE's pre-1.2. So I can say, "Back in my day we RE'd uphill- BOTH WAYS. ON HOTH!")

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EDIT: finally got that one RE'd, only took about 25 tries. So much for a 20% chance tho ]

 

While it might seem rare, a simulator I wrote in python says that you will find an item taking 25 or more rolls to RE about 0.37% of the time, or roughly 1 out of 270 items attempted. In fact, out of a million dice rolls (and close to 200,000 successes), I had one take 51 rolls. And yes, this is with a nominal 20% chance of success.

 

After running the million-roll simulation many times (about 10), there's always at least one over 50, and about a third of the time, at least one over 60.

 

FYI, it appears that the 90th percentile is about 10.5 or so, so in general, out of every 10 schematics you attempt to get, one will take more than 10. And about one in 45 will take 20 or more.

 

BTW, since 1.2 released, my overall success rate has been 21.7% (33 successes out of 152 trials)

Edited by Zhiroc
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  • 1 month later...

Only some items are "bugged". I'm still seeing way too many "20%" items take 20, 25, 30 or more attempts. Most of the analysis I've seen seems to assume a high level overlying bug. That doesn't make sense. What does make sense is that some # of individual items got missed and are still set to their old %.

 

I see no other reasonable explanation. Looking only at "20%" items; How else would you get a large # of cases of success within 10 tries (as expected) with the # of occurrences of each # of tries tapering off as it increases. But then a bump up again when you get to 20 tries? It's about 1/100 that something with a 20% chance of success will take 20 tries. It's not bad luck. Some (possibly) small but significant # of items did not get updated properly.

Edited by hooty
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To be honest, at times I feel like the 20% is as high as it goes for any stack you have, for example a stack of 10 will still be 20% chance to get schematic instead of 100% (I know it's not 100% it's just a very high chance of getting one by 10 reverses)

 

Couple of weeks ago I think I reversed maybe 27 or so lvl 32 willpower stims and didn't get a single schematic.

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I think we can just all agree the current system is frustrating. I would actually rather eat the extra mats just to know how many I had to RE, even if they increased it.

 

For the things that are allegedly 20%, just make it so you have to RE 10. 10%, you have to RE 20. Sure there are times when I get it on my 2nd try, but I would gladly trade those to avoid the frustration of the times when I get one on my 43rd try.

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