1309032 + 1716816 + 1394913 + (47535 * 2 * 3) = 4705971

 

Note that I'm doubling the Legionaire to represent the AoE DPS loss due to the need to kill the remainder of the adds. I'm assuming you have enough AoE DPS that you don't need to single-target them down.

 

11204.692857143 DPS required

 

Tanks: 1.2k each

Healers: 0k each

DPS: 2202

 

Estimated Ciphas bubble delay: 12 seconds. Accounting for this delay:

 

420 - 24 = 396

 

11883.765151515 DPS required

 

DPS: 2371

 

This is not mathematically impossible.

you cant factor in tank dps in this fight, you've done it before right?

Can you post the HP on each boss, the HP of the adds, the hard enrage time in seconds and the approximate amount of time required to break Ciphas's bubble (being over/under on this value by a little bit doesn't have much impact on the DPS minima).

 

Personally, I'm really glad the enrage timer is hard. Everyone was complaining about trivial DPS checks on the PTS, so it's good to see things have been retuned. Whether or not it is truly mathematically over-tuned is still up in the air since we haven't seen numbers.

 

Something to consider: with a Resolve stim and DPS relics, I can get almost 1.2k DPS on my tank on Styrak. I'm almost positive I can get quite a bit more on the Dread Guard as the fight is more static and has fewer debuffs. 40% of Kel'sara really isn't that much, relatively speaking (even assuming even HP levels, 40% is equivalent to enraging at 13% on a normal boss). You may be able to eke out that much just by having your healers drop Affliction once every so often and your tanks pull more damage.

There is a HUGE difference between what you are saying and what reality is. You're not taking fight mechanics into consideration and you're throwing in the "60% of all internet statistics are made up".

Kelsara wasn't at 40%, she was at 55% when the last man died and they reset. Moot point anyways. You cannot simply divide by 3 bosses to get the correct enrage % because the bosses both heal to full when they die, completely negating tank DPS on anything other than Kelsara, as well as the shield phases during Heirad. None of that DPS counts for anything, meaning it's a lot more than your 13%. Add in the Legionnaire's and you get even more required DPS. You had all of that in your post and you ignored it in your gross calculations.

Again, tank DPS doesn't matter at all in this fight until you get to Kelsara, and at that point it's effectively halved because only one tank can be attacking her at a given time. If you were to stack the tanks on Heirad and hold with AOE abilities and taunts/guards on healers, you'd lose your mitigation stacks applied to Ciphas and Kelsara. The fight is already VERY healing intensive, adding in extra damage because of lost mitigation is going to cause wipes from dead tanks. This isn't HM faceroll where you can ignore the secondary bosses in favor of higher DPS to get out of the raid faster, if you lose aggro on C/K for more than 5 seconds, you have a dead DPS/healer and you wipe.

We have seen numbers, and it's mathematically impossible for 8man, absolutely without a doubt. You need 4 players putting out 3k DPS, there's about 15 of those spread across all of the servers on dummies, some of which use AOE on multiple dummies to pad their numbers. Take in the circle running (6 up from 3, double the DPS loss from HM), the shielding phase, and adds that we didn't factor in and you have an impossible fight. I'm all about difficulty, this fight is very difficult. If we were getting closer than ~500k hp on the final boss I'd be more hesitant to say it's not possible but you can't make up for 50 seconds of DPS over a 7min fight. We have a group that is capable of pushing HM before the first lightning in the same fight, before the second spine throw during the Kell Dragon, all of the "broke the fight" standards. We're not even close at 50% enrage.

you cant factor in tank dps in this fight, you've done it before right?

Of course I've done this fight before. And yes, I factor in tank DPS, because you know, I'm a tank, and I do damage, and I'm intelligent enough to DPS the boss that doesn't heal back up. You don't have to hold the bosses apart. The buffs that Ciphas and Hierad get from damage to the other bosses kick in at particular HP levels and don't really start to activate until very low values. We've played around with this by killing Kel'sara first. Ciphas doesn't become a problem until the teens in Kel'sara's percentages.

And regarding damage mitigation buffs lost due to DPSing the wrong target, this is only a problem for Vanguards/PowerTechs. They can easily resolve this by tabbing back to the appropriate target, hitting Stockstrike and then tabbing back to the correct boss. Even that step wouldn't be required if you have at least one Shadow/Assassin tank in your group, since they maintain their debuff stacks through AoE.

Hold the bosses together so that the tank swaps require zero movement. Tanks DPS the correct target 100% of the time (except when Leached as a shadow).

1309032 + 1716816 + 1394913 + (47535 * 2 * 3) = 4705971

 

Note that I'm doubling the Legionaire to represent the AoE DPS loss due to the need to kill the remainder of the adds. I'm assuming you have enough AoE DPS that you don't need to single-target them down.

 

11204.692857143 DPS required

 

Tanks: 1.2k each

Healers: 0k each

DPS: 2202

 

Estimated Ciphas bubble delay: 12 seconds. Accounting for this delay:

 

420 - 24 = 396

 

11883.765151515 DPS required

 

DPS: 2371

 

This is not mathematically impossible.

 

I think what guilds are seeing right now is multi-fold. First, tanks are probably not pulling their weight. Second, DPS are unfamiliar with the NiM mechanics and psyching themselves out a bit, and thus losing a LOT of DPS due to mechanics. The numbers that people are posting (e.g. 2.6k DPS) are net over the whole fight and probably include a lot of incidental AoE on bosses that heal back up. The numbers I posted above are effective DPS, which means that you don't get to count incidental AoE on the other bosses toward your effective number.

Dps loss to doom moving, dps loss to likely three sets of summoned adds for kel, dps loss on spreading for lightning field, dps loss for the fact that all bosses gain 100% health back to which tanks need to use at least a few in the beginning of the fight. Dps loss for choke. X-X it's bad tam. Really bad.

a tank's dps isnt going to make up for the dps check required and the healers >>>can not<<< afford to dps

Precasting Mind Crush, using Weaken Mind whenever it runs out, plus small amount of damage from ForceWave, eaasily doig above 200dps as healer, while keeping everyone alive, so dont say "can not afford to"

Of course I've done this fight before. And yes, I factor in tank DPS, because you know, I'm a tank, and I do damage, and I'm intelligent enough to DPS the boss that doesn't heal back up. You don't have to hold the bosses apart. The buffs that Ciphas and Hierad get from damage to the other bosses kick in at particular HP levels and don't really start to activate until very low values. We've played around with this by killing Kel'sara first. Ciphas doesn't become a problem until the teens in Kel'sara's percentages.

 

Hold the bosses together so that the tank swaps require zero movement. Tanks DPS the correct target 100% of the time (except when Leached as a shadow).

yeah, you aren't getting reliable tank dps in on nightmare for this fight

trust me, i've actually done nightmare

Dps loss to doom moving, dps loss to likely three sets of summoned adds for kel, dps loss on spreading for lightning field, dps loss for the fact that all bosses gain 100% health back to which tanks need to use at least a few in the beginning of the fight. Dps loss for chock. X-X it's bad tam. Really bad.

I agree that we can't just use dummy DPS norms to predict how people are going to do on this. My point is that this is within the realm of possible. On my sniper, I parse almost exactly as high on this fight (in HM) as I do on a dummy. On my sentinel, I'm within one or two percentage points (as long as the tanks aren't being stupid). I expect that Nightmare Mode would cause a more significant DPS hit, since the red circles are a pain and the adds are practically immortal compared to the paper HP pools in HM, but even still. 2.3k is very low compared to the dummy DPS that people are able to put up these days. That's a lot of cushion room for mechanical loss.

yeah, you aren't getting reliable tank dps in on nightmare for this fight

trust me, i've actually done nightmare

Please elaborate. What is so radically different about Nightmare vs Hard that you're unable to get reliable tank DPS? I've seen the videos. I've analyzed the fights. I don't see anything that would be a significant tank concern aside from the higher damage levels (which, honestly, are a healer concern more than a tank concern).

Please Bioware do not nerf this yet. It is a great challenge if no one has cleared it by next week (reset day) consider changing it down.

Please do not change it now

I'm going to laugh pretty hard when someone kills this, after hearing all this 2h of attempts crying.

Yeah, honestly this makes me really want to try the fight. I'm sure my group will hit the enrage, but I'm looking forward to the challenge. I'm quite confident that it's not impossible, but the numbers certainly do look very, very difficult.

you cant factor in tank dps in this fight, you've done it before right?

Yes you can, there is no reason why you can't and there is no reason for the tanks to be attacking anything but the dps target.

Its sad that people are complaining about this fight, bioware finally adds something challenging into the game and people want a nerf. Allot of guilds have been waiting for something to pound our heads against for a very long time now, please don't take that away from us. NM is clearly suppose to be harder and day 1 progression shouldn't be expected for all guilds. I'd suggest sticking to hard mode for those trying to go breeze through this.

Yeah, honestly this makes me really want to try the fight. I'm sure my group will hit the enrage, but I'm looking forward to the challenge. I'm quite confident that it's not impossible, but the numbers certainly do look very, very difficult.

Which, incidentally, is EXACTLY what every 8m guild wanted after seeing 16m EC NiM.

I hear what KBN has to say, and you can tell that people are simply getting frustrated by an 8man fight requiring more than 1 day of raiding to kill. We've seen this on NiM 16 Tanks and Kephess, I've been there. Obviously I feel for all raiders in this case...when you continually wipe ~30% it's hard to see any way to get to a kill. It's chipping away though, making small changes across your entire group to find extra dps. Some guild will approach this with an open mind and outperform expectations.

For those that claim impossible, I'll ask you, how far is possible? I think you'll find that whether you say 50% or 20%, there's a guild out there that will beat your expectation.

I hear what KBN has to say, and you can tell that people are simply getting frustrated by an 8man fight requiring more than 1 day of raiding to kill. We've seen this on NiM 16 Tanks and Kephess, I've been there. Obviously I feel for all raiders in this case...when you continually wipe ~30% it's hard to see any way to get to a kill. It's chipping away though, making small changes across your entire group to find extra dps. Some guild will approach this with an open mind and outperform expectations.

 

For those that claim impossible, I'll ask you, how far is possible? I think you'll find that whether you say 50% or 20%, there's a guild out there that will beat your expectation.

Add 1 minute to the enrage timer.

I hear what KBN has to say, and you can tell that people are simply getting frustrated by an 8man fight requiring more than 1 day of raiding to kill. We've seen this on NiM 16 Tanks and Kephess, I've been there. Obviously I feel for all raiders in this case...when you continually wipe ~30% it's hard to see any way to get to a kill. It's chipping away though, making small changes across your entire group to find extra dps. Some guild will approach this with an open mind and outperform expectations.

 

For those that claim impossible, I'll ask you, how far is possible? I think you'll find that whether you say 50% or 20%, there's a guild out there that will beat your expectation.

This. A thousand times, this. Making the enrage tighter is a bit of a cheap way to make a fight hard, but it works. I'm delighted that BioWare has made this fight meaningfully difficult. I don't want it to be cleared on Day 1. I don't want it be cleared even on Week 1. I want to beat my head against the screen, cry tears of frustration and stay up late nights brain storming about ways to eke out just a few more DPS points.

Please elaborate. What is so radically different about Nightmare vs Hard that you're unable to get reliable tank DPS? I've seen the videos. I've analyzed the fights. I don't see anything that would be a significant tank concern aside from the higher damage levels (which, honestly, are a healer concern more than a tank concern).

If you haven't been in there, you have no right to be discussing anything here. Sorry dude, it's completely different than plugging in fudged math. The tanks have to focus most of their time on STAYING ALIVE, not adding in max theoretical DPS. Healers have to spend all of their time keeping people alive, they cannot waste the GCD's on keeping constant DOTs up. This isn't like HM where spreading out mitigates the Lightning to negligable damage, if you aren't at ~75% health, you run the risk of getting taken to 15% or lower which Heirad will do to you in 2 GCD's, putting high stress on the healers. This happens a minimum of twice, cooldowns only help out to the raid being at around 30% health. Healers cannot be doing anything but trying to keep up because the "keeping up" mark is having all DPS at full health and tanks at above 50%. It's not an easy thing to do.

If you haven't been in there, you have no right to be discussing anything here. Sorry dude, it's completely different than plugging in fudged math. The tanks have to focus most of their time on STAYING ALIVE, not adding in max theoretical DPS.

So what you're telling me is that you're finding the fight difficult. You're using that assertion to make an argument from authority, claiming that nothing I say is valid.

I'm sorry you're wiping. I'm sorry that your tanks aren't able to multi-task with their CDs and their high-damage attacks. The math is in an earlier post if you're interested. The fight is doable, it's just not going to fall on day 1.

Are tanks in other guilds not attacking the dps target and just tanking their dudes off to the side? That is a massive DPS loss if people are doing that.

Tanks should have almost 100% uptime on the dps target except for during the final phase when they are leeched.

If you haven't been in there, you have no right to be discussing anything here. Sorry dude, it's completely different than plugging in fudged math. The tanks have to focus most of their time on STAYING ALIVE, not adding in max theoretical DPS. Healers have to spend all of their time keeping people alive, they cannot waste the GCD's on keeping constant DOTs up. This isn't like HM where spreading out mitigates the Lightning to negligable damage, if you aren't at ~75% health, you run the risk of getting taken to 15% or lower which Heirad will do to you in 2 GCD's, putting high stress on the healers. This happens a minimum of twice, cooldowns only help out to the raid being at around 30% health. Healers cannot be doing anything but trying to keep up because the "keeping up" mark is having all DPS at full health and tanks at above 50%. It's not an easy thing to do.

So based on the, what, 3-4 guilds that have done it and posted here and their sweeping generalizations of what is possible the fight should be nerfed?

So what you're telling me is that you're finding the fight difficult. You're using that assertion to make an argument from authority, claiming that nothing I say is valid.

 

I'm sorry you're wiping. I'm sorry that your tanks aren't able to multi-task with their CDs and their high-damage attacks. The math is in an earlier post if you're interested. The fight is doable, it's just not going to fall on day 1.

Speaking from someone who has over a dozen World and US firsts in WoW, this fight is not possible right now.

I have beat my head against a wall, I've worked on bosses for weeks to get firsts, and I've done ridiculous strats to think outside the box. This fight right now is NOT possible given the current enrage timer. It isn't like we can get better gear, we're all BiS in full 72 with optimal augments and relics. KeyboardNinja, go in there, see it for yourself, and I promise you no one will kill this fight in its current iteration.

So what you're telling me is that you're finding the fight difficult. You're using that assertion to make an argument from authority, claiming that nothing I say is valid.

 

I'm sorry you're wiping. I'm sorry that your tanks aren't able to multi-task with their CDs and their high-damage attacks. The math is in an earlier post if you're interested. The fight is doable, it's just not going to fall on day 1.

You just don't get it until you try it with the changes. dps in HM vs nightmare is a completely different story. Nightmare involves a lot more movement and a lot more dmg done/required. A tank doing 200 more dps isnt going to come close to solving the gap in dmg required to down this.

So what you're telling me is that you're finding the fight difficult. You're using that assertion to make an argument from authority, claiming that nothing I say is valid.

 

I'm sorry you're wiping. I'm sorry that your tanks aren't able to multi-task with their CDs and their high-damage attacks. The math is in an earlier post if you're interested. The fight is doable, it's just not going to fall on day 1.

Spoken like someone who doesn't know they increased the damage output as well as the HP of this fight.

This fight is impossible given current enrage timer.