I did read the post. I'm suggesting that the OP doesn't understand statistics, independent events, and random outcomes. ...
I may disagree with the OP about sample size, but there is NO DOUBT that he has a thorough and advanced understanding of statistics. You are completely misunderstanding the point he is trying to make. I would suggest looking up "Confidence Interval" and "Standard Deviation" and re-reading his post.
I also recommend re-reading post #17 and #18 and review the graphs both posters supplied supporting their points.
This thread is, at it's heart, a mathematical analysis of RE.