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Regholdain
02.20.2013 , 09:55 AM | #77
You are all assuming the 20% chance is not weighted by the skill level of your crew skill.

My personal experience in crafting in SWTOR has been that I am more successful reverse engineering gray and green difficulty recipes than recipes that are yellow and orange difficulty. The 20% of one is not equal to the other because crew skill seems to be factored into the result. The more difficult the recepe in relation to your skill level, the less likely you will successfully RE it.

At least, that's my assumption. I do not have a max level crafter, but the same appears to be true of other missions. If you do a Rich Yeild mission that's gray, you're far more likely to get awesome results than if it is yellow or orange.

It also seems to factor in whether it is a blue schematic or green that you are reverse engineering. I have had far more successes RE green and getting blues than RE blues to get purples.

All of your mathematic analyses are assuming the 20% chance is not weighted by crew skill level or schematic quality, which it most likely is. If the system is truly weighted in those ways, and appears to be, it follows that no amount of statistical analysis against the hypothesis that it's a flat 20% chance as the tooltip suggests is going to give you any pool of data that will be accurate.