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jgelling's Avatar

02.15.2013 , 10:14 PM | #55
Quote: Originally Posted by Miravlix View Post
The usual gamers fallicy...

"Again, the fallacy is the belief that the "universe" somehow carries a memory of past results which tend to favor or disfavor future outcomes."

It's a 20% chance each time you re an item, it's not a 20% chance of all your re attempts.
In the case of crafting, perhaps the (game) universe should carry a memory of past results?

It's entirely possible to tweak the formula so that the average remains 20%, and yet a small percentage of players are not screwed horribly 30 times in a row. You just add a simple variable to track all the misses, and when they reach a certain threshold it either increases the odds, forces a success, or something similar.

There really isn't a good reason crafting to me should even be a completely random thing. Not only is that completely frustrating for unlucky players, it doesn't even make logical sense. In the real-world, you're much more likely to succeed at something the more you try at it - you're not 20% likely to succeed the first time and also 20% to succeed the 30th time.

You learn from your failures, so it'd make sense if the system had a variable that kept failures from getting out of hand. It may well, for all I know, but it wouldn't shock me in the least if Bioware's formula really was as dumb as a 0.2 saved as a constant in some file.