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Khevar's Avatar

02.15.2013 , 04:35 PM | #53
Quote: Originally Posted by psandak View Post
Very enlightening, but the statement below (quoted from wikipedia), makes all our attempts to change people's minds moot
You know, just to digress for a moment, the first time I went to Vegas and learned to play craps, I was convinced that I could actually work out a viable strategy to win at that game. (Never mind the fact that far more intelligent mathematicians than me had yet to do so. ) My deep-seated belief in my own version of the Gambler's fallacy convinced me that I could work out a strategy that would net me big bucks.

It wasn't until the Nth version of my Martingale strategy program, running millions of dice rolls for each iteration, that I started to have a vague idea that perhaps I was being foolish, and that there is a very good reason for a table limit, why the odds are structured the way they are, and why card counting strategists are thrown out but dice counting strategists are welcomed with open arms.

It took quite a bit of convincing for me to come to terms with my own Gambler's Fallacy. I wonder what it takes for others.