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psandak
02.12.2013 , 12:41 PM | #25
Quote: Originally Posted by Frostbyt View Post
pretty sure OP knows a lot more about probability and RNG then you
But that does not make his statement invalid.

I quote the TV series Numb3rs...

Quote:
Charlie Eppes: Lady luck, chance, randomness... Human beings, truly, have a hard time understanding it. Raindrops fall randomly. Now which of these two images best represents raindrops falling on a sidewalk? Is it image A?
[grouped pattern]
Charlie Eppes: Image B?
[even pattern - the class chooses this one]
Charlie Eppes: Okay. You're wrong. Our brains misperceive evenness as random, and wrongly assume that groupings are deliberate. Because of this people make all sorts of irrational decisions. Like, they won't work in a high rise building, or they're afraid to live in an earthquake prone area. And yet mathematical assessment tells us that you are far more likely to suffocate in bed than you are to you are to die in a terrorist attack. You are ten times more likely to die from alcohol than from being in an earthquake. And it is three times more likely that you will be killed while driving to buy a lottery ticket than it is that you will win the lottery.
Getting back to the RE RNG. Just because ONE player has a bad streak of 10 REs not producing a schematic does not make that cluster deliberate and the system broken. On the flip side just because one player manages to get three schematics in three REs also does not make that cluster deliberate and the system broken.

My point is that doing statistical analysis of RE events from one player's perspective is an inherently flawed experiment. Now if you could get a thousand players to do 500 REs each....then you are dealing with a reasonable sample size. But even then, "reasonable" is relative. There WILL be a margin of error of several percentage points. The greater the number of participants and the greater the number of attempts the more likely the final tally of results will be the expected result of 20%. And Bioware actually has the data from EVERY player, on EVERY character, and EVERY RE ever done. Do you REALLY think that if the system were actually broken that BioWare would not fix it? If so, you better get your tinfoil hat out