First off as an individual with a Six Sigma Green Belt
, I always find the statistical numbers interesting. Yet, even with my background combined with the fact that I understand the assumed logic of the 1K flips of a coin and the odds that align with this for heads and tails.
It is as one of the previous posters points out; the number (e.g. 20% Green to Blue) is simply that without the understanding of the formula used to determine this and the alignment of the code to implement the formula it truly does means nothing. Honestly I do not foresee BioWare or EA allowing their code to become public regardless of the concept that has evolved of F2P.
I do remember a discussion over a year ago (shortly after launch) that revolved around the logic of real world thinking. That discussion in this forum based that even if I fail at something I learn from the mistake to improve my odds of success the next time I attempt the same thing. This was when the BioWare coders actually and openly admitted the formula did not account for "n"
attempts to create a new formula after each attempt due to the complexity it would require.
Now even with the odds and the statistical studies we all point to with different trains of thought and methods that work for one person and not another, we have to remember that the underlying code is nothing without understanding of how it integrates into the system. Thus the fact that without evidence of the code and the formula being used to drive the code all this is simply assumptions on what should occur and how it works.
So in basic terms I would declare it more a myth and base it on the fact that it works every now and then for me. This assumption also plays around that I have the patients at times to waste hours gathering resources (including credits) to craft with only to have to spend more time doing it all over to get the desired outcome.
Hence the real question we are asking is are we satisfied with crafting in general cause it is not delivering what an individual wants, but might for someone else.