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ebado
01.28.2013 , 04:46 PM | #37
Quote: Originally Posted by Facime View Post
As for those of you saying its a re-roll each time. I understand that, but Im wondering how many of you might not understand odds and statistics. The way it works is like this: Statistically I have a one in 5 chance of hitting a schematic. That means that the more times I attempt and fail, the greater my odds are that I will hit on the next attempt...statistically speaking of course. When you dont hit after 30 or 40 attempts, either the mechanic is broken or you are deep nito a statistical anomally. .
Sigh.

Your odds don't change. Even if we were talking about a statistically significant sample size in the millions. It's 1/5 each time. Your odds each time are 1/5. Over the course of a statistically significant sample size of rolls, you don't increase your odds at any time.. No, you don't. Not statistically speaking. Rather, over the course of a statistically significant sample size of rolls, you have enough indepedent rolls for the actual chance to show through and eliminate and / or reduce the effect of outliers.

That is completely different from saying "I've failed 20 times, that means I have a better chance now than I did the first time."