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Facime
01.23.2013 , 04:57 PM | #24
Quote: Originally Posted by Khevar View Post
I apologise in advance for being harsh here, but do YOU understand statistics? You need a large enough sample size for any sort of "dice roll" statistics to be meaningful.

100 attempts? Nope
1,000 attempts? Nope
10,000 attempts? Better, but not really enough.
100,000 attempts? More likely to statistically average out.
1,000,000 attempts? Now we're talking.

Oh, and here's someone flipping a coin 10 times in a row:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1uJD1O3L08

a statistical anomaly, requiring 1000 coin flips to prove its possible, isnt proof of anything relevant here. In fact it proves the rule, because Id bet on his 11th toss it hit tails because the ODDS were stacked against him. For all we know, he hit tails 10 times in a row right after that. Thats the way odds work. If my experience was just an anamoly, then so be it. Does it hurt anything to ask the question here?

Of course the larger the sample size the more accurate the results. DUH! But that doesnt alter the simple FACT that the more times you break the odds, the greater your chance on the next attempt. Huge sample sizes may in fact prove the STATISTICS correct for R/E, but odds are odds and in a RNG system, when the odds APPEAR to break down, I start to question them.

Quote:
How many RE's are happening on your sever besides yours? All of these need to be taken into account for your statistics
Statistically, I agree, but none of that alters my ODDS. Someone elses good run of luck doesnt somehow increase my odds of failing. That not how it works man.

Im not interested in getting into some kind of pissing match with you about this. If you dont have something useful to add to the conversation please feel free to ignore the topic and move on. Im more interested in hearing a DEV say they've looked at this recently and can verify with THIER metrics that the system is working as intended and that relogging these seeming long odds breaking runs are simply bad luck and not a broken mechanic of the game.


Remeber this is an admittedly buggy game still. The fact that I relogged and "fixed" my concern may have been pure chance, or it may have reset a broken mechanic. Id like to see others post here if they are able to duplicate the result.

If after say 25 or 30 failures, try relogging and post if you hit in the next run of 5.