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finelinebob
01.02.2013 , 12:29 PM | #5
Quote: Originally Posted by _Darkstar View Post
I might read that if you mentioned what you are actually trying to show. Biased towards what?
Well, I tried really hard to get someone who could do some more advanced statistical testing to work with me on this, but unfortunately all the sites I checked with showed no interest. It would have been much shorter if I could have done that.

Executive summary? About a 2 to 1 bias in favor of factional missions over neutral missions. That much I can clearly show with the data I collected. That means that we're dealing with "weighted dice" whenever we try to get missions, and it means that without the advanced stats I cannot say a number of things that would make matters worse, such as:
  • I cannot say that 75% of the time you will get something other than a metals mission even though there is a 3 to 1 bias against metals missions in just the variety of missions that are available;
  • I cannot say that the amount of metal that you get is lower on average than gifts or fabrics because the yields of metals missions, by what is available, appears to be weighted towards lower yield missions; and
  • I cannot say that matters are made worse, that there is an interaction effect against metals, given the types and yields of factional missions versus neutral missions.
I cannot say anything about any of those points because of the presence of the weighting of factional missions over neutral missions making assignment of missions a non-random event. If matters were purely random, I could say those things with certainty. Well, the first two anyway. The third is where the problem lies.
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