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SteveGarbage's Avatar

12.06.2012 , 01:36 PM | #7
Obviously crafting for a specific pre-fixed item is way more difficult than the linear path for mods and such. I think one aspect you're overlooking, however, is that these percentages are very low to try to brute-force through. The truth is there IS a lot of luck involved, because it's a RNG system, that, yes, has been talked about to death but still not changed.

I don't have the game in front of my right now, but if I'm not mistaken, the chance to RE a schematic off a blue-grade item is 10 percent? Or is it only 5 percent when you get to those higher levels? Anyhow, from there, if you're specifically targeting one prefix combo out of five, you're setting yourself up for a lot of frustration.

That means on top of a 1 in 10 chance or 1 in 20 chance to not RE anything, you're adding another 1 in 5 chance to get the one you want. As far as I'm aware, just because you already RE'd one of those last five schematics doesn't take it out of the pool. It's not like, "Oh you already have Expert, here's Vehemence instead!" It's more like, "You got Expert! Oh you already have Expert? OK then you get nothing."

You mention the odds and yes, it is extremely rare to have a streak of so many failures in a row. But it's not impossible. The probability of REing at all is either 1 in 10 or 1 in 20 (again, can't remember) and then the conditional probability to RE the prefix you want is 1 in 5. So your overall probability of crafting that one specific prefix combo on any try is either 1 in 50 or 1 in 100.

Again, those tries are all independent of one another. You don't gain anything by rolling multiple times. You odds will be 1 in 100 on try No. 1 and they will be the same on try No. 100. Your percentage chance to win isn't increasing with each try. You're not "due" to win eventually. That's the gambler's fallacy. So while the chance of failing 30 times in a row is whatever small percentage, the chance of you failing on each try is 99 percent, period.

Crafting a specific artifact-grade prefixed item is horribly punishing. The numbers back that up. It's not a great crafting system and you're no the first person to experience this frustration (I had it trying to craft a purple-grade enhancement on my Sentinel and that's not even the prefixed kind of RE). But that's the way it goes. Math sucks sometimes.
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