Thread: [Synthweaving] Savant Sash
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psandak's Avatar

12.05.2012 , 09:56 AM | #13
Quote: Originally Posted by Zem_ View Post
Not exactly. When we're not talking about actual amounts of money, "even money" simply means that the chance of an event happening is equal to the chance of it NOT happening. i.e. 50/50. A bet where you're as likely to win as to lose. So you can't compare just any two events like the chance of success of one trial vs the chance of seven failures. That's apples and oranges. It has to be the two possible outcomes of the given proposition. If I have eight items to RE and I am wondering, ahead of time, what the odds are that I will get the schematic before I run out of items to RE vs. the odds of getting NO schematic then you can calculate that as:

The chance of succeeding on the first try, plus...
The chance of failing on the first try and succeeding on the second, plus...
The chance of failing on the first two tries and succeeding on the third, plus... etc, etc.

Or you could do it the easy way and take the chance of NO successes in all eight tries and subtract it from 100%. Which is what I did in my last post. The odds are substantially better than 50/50 that you will see that schematic. You are not beating the odds if you get the schematic even though we've all had those bad luck streaks that make us think success is a lot less likely than it really is. We forget the times that it DID only take 1 or 2 or 3 tries and we remember the times we failed 10 or 20 or more times.
Not saying you are wrong but, these types of debates always remind me of a verse in the Don Henley song Garden of Allah

"Today I made an appearance downtown
I am an expert witness, because I say I am
And I said, 'Gentleman....and I use that word loosely....
I will testify for you
I'm a gun for hire, I'm a saint, I'm a liar
Because there are no facts, there is no truth
Just a data to be manipulated
I can get any result you like
What's it worth to ya?
Because there is no wrong, there is no right
And I sleep very well at night
No shame, no solution
No remorse, no retribution
Just people selling T-shirts
Just opportunity to participate in the pathetic little circus
And winning, winning, winning'"