There's an interesting post in the german forum which explains the mathematical nature of it^^

reverseengineering
you may want to use google translator for it

W

Warning, google translator not perfect

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That being said, I read it and it said exactly what I (and many others) have been saying for a long time...

Just because you have gone through a bad luck stretch does not mean the system is broken.

Every attempt has a 20% chance of success and an 80% chance of failure. The probability of success never changes, but the probability of continued failure does decrease but never reaches zero.