Thread: [Synthweaving] Savant Sash
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Zem_
12.03.2012 , 01:34 PM | #8
Quote: Originally Posted by psandak View Post
Or you could look at it this way...
The chance of success on any one attempt is 20%. The chance of seven consecutive failures is 20.97% (80%^7). So if you manage to get a success within seven tries, consider yourself lucky because you beat the odds. One success in eight tries is even money and anything beyond that...you're unlucky, don't play the lotto
that day.
I follow your math, but not your conclusions. How is one success in eight, "even money"? The odds of one or more success in eight trials is 1 - (0.8^8) = 83.22%. Those odds are much more than even money, are they not? i.e. I wouldn't bet money against having at least one success in eight trials. In the long term, you would lose all your money.