Thread: [Synthweaving] Savant Sash
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psandak
12.03.2012 , 10:56 AM | #7
Quote: Originally Posted by ekimmak View Post
Afraid this is about the only thing you said that's useful. Not to be nasty, but while it seems like you should get your stuff on the third RE, it doesn't work like that.

Your first RE has an 0.2 chance of success. Your second also has an 0.2 chance of success. The chance of both succeeding is 0.2*0.2 which is 0.04. Your chance of at least one succeeding is 0.2+0.2*0.8, 0.36. The chances of both failing are an inverse on the maths, 0.8-0.8*0.2 = 0.64.

Your chances of success will never get any better, there is no streakbreaker. It should be more likely to get at least one as time goes on, but there will be outliers. Probably one of the bigger flaws off the system.
Or you could look at it this way...
The chance of success on any one attempt is 20%. The chance of seven consecutive failures is 20.97% (80%^7). So if you manage to get a success within seven tries, consider yourself lucky because you beat the odds. One success in eight tries is even money and anything beyond that...you're unlucky, don't play the lotto
that day.

That being said, you MUST look at it from a large scale POV. Take all the REs you have ever attempted and do the math. I will bet the percentages will work out to 20% (within an appropriate margin or error). Now take ALL the REs that EVERY player has EVER done in the last year and I guarantee the percentages work out.