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11.26.2012 , 12:24 AM |
Double posting again.
: Do The Math
: The Calculus of Loss
: Sha’ra’zaed (agent), Keeper
Major spoilers for Agent Act One, especially the finale of the act. 830 words.
Note on Math connection (spoilers here! Really!):
Differential Calculus provides mathematical models for rates of change, mathematically represented as the equation of a line tangent to a specific point on a curve. In this case, how soon before the Empire declared war depending on what happens with Darth Jadus and the Eradicators.
“And you chose to defy Darth Jadus,” Keeper asked.
“That is correct, Keeper,” Sha’ra’zaed said.
“And deactivate the eradicators,” he continued.
“Correct, Keeper,” Sha’ra’zaed said.
“You could have infiltrated his organization, Cipher Nine. That is well within your training,” Keeper pressed.
“At the cost of civilian lives, Keeper,” Sha’ra’zaed stated.
“You have no decisive proof that Darth Jadus would have used the eradicators, nor that the targets he chose would be of strategic value to the Empire,” Keeper countered, “Only Sith can predict the future.”
Sha’ra’zaed stood before the console. There was no chrono on it, but she felt the steady march of time regardless.
“Enter your half of the code, Agent,” Darth Jadus repeated.
The eradicators, firing blind, cause destruction on a massive scale. The Empire is not prepared for a disaster of this magnitude. The casualties are varied, both civilian and military. Propaganda mills spin the story of a Republic sneak attack. The Republic denies the claim. Propaganda plays well with the Imperial public, but civilian morale still suffers as the eradicators continue to function erratically for months. There is no Republic follow-up attack. Persistent rumors that the disaster was in fact a Sith weapon prove impossible to put down. The Republic, seizing on the Empire’s internal turmoil, moves to a more wartime footing. Seeing this, the Sith attack first, before the Republic is fully prepared.
Prognosis: Open war. Timeframe: between six months and one standard year. Casualties: High, immediate and continual. Value of Casualties: varied.
Survival probability: Once eradicators activated without control, personal value to Darth Jadus is nil. Value to Intelligence, nil. Non survivable.
Enabling the eradicators gives Darth Jadus control over their targets. He chooses targets designed to induce the maximum fear from the Imperial populace while sparing its military preparedness. Targets of symbolic value are prized. Casualties are largely civilian and nonvital infrastructure. Imperial civilian morale plummets. Military uncertain. Darth Jadus reclaims seat on Dark Council. Propaganda mills spread stories of Republic sneak attacks. Republic denies attacks. Despite propaganda, rumors circulate of a Sith superweapon. The Republic, seeing the Empire’s weakened position, strikes first.
Prognosis: Open war. Timeframe: Between three and six standard months. Casualties: High, immediate and ongoing. Value: Low in initial analysis, becoming steadily higher as war progresses.
Survival Probability: Personal value to Darth Jadus once granting control of the eradicators is moderate. Alternative: Accept offer to serve Darth Jadus and continue to report to Intelligence as an infiltrator within his organization. Survival probability upgrades to high.
Disadvantage: Darth Jadus’ true purpose unknown. Darth Jadus’ aura skews normal thought processes. Long-term personal outcome less predictable.
Alternative: Refuse service to Darth Jadus. Disable or sabotage ship, disrupting Darth Jadus’ ability to direct eradicators. Prognosis: Open war still within three and six standard months. Casualties: High-moderate, growing higher as war progresses. Value: Low initial, growing higher as war progresses.
Survival probability downgrades to very low.
Disabling the eradicators eliminates immediate threat to Imperial populations. Darth Jadus discredited, unable to reclaim seat on Dark Council. Propaganda emphasizes the
’s destruction as the responsibility of Republic-funded terrorists. Emphasizing Republic and Jedi involvement in Balmorra conflict embarrasses Republic. Releasing details of Alde/Organa involvement through Cortess proxy with Eagle’s network further weakens Republic public position. Imperial position strengthened.
Prognosis: Status Quo. Timeframe: Open war averted for minimum one standard year. Predictions past one standard year depend greatly on future Dark Council actions. Casualties: very low to nil. Value: not applicable.
Survival probability: Possibility of service to Darth Jadus eliminated. Once eradicators disabled, personal value to Darth Jadus is nil. Value to Intelligence presumably high.
Immediate probability of survival is very low. Possibility of permanently eliminating Darth Jadus as a threat to the Empire likewise low.
“I took the action I deemed best for the Empire as a whole under the circumstances,” Sha’ra’zaed said.
Keeper leaned forward on his desk, “You defied a Sith Lord and member of the Dark Council.”
“Begging your pardon, Keeper, but Darth Jadus was not acting in the capacity of Dark Council member at the time,” she said.
“Semantics, Nine,” Keeper said. He took a deep breath, “And you were unable to apprehend him.”
Sha’ra’zaed blinked once, slowly. It would take Darth Jadus a long time to rebuild enough strength to be a credible threat to the Empire. “A single ship escaped the
’s second destruction. It is likely Darth Jadus was aboard,” she said, repeating Watcher Two’s conclusion.
Keeper scratched his nails on the desk and stood, “Watcher Three will continue your debrief, Cipher Nine.” He left the room.
Sha’ra’zaed watched his reflection retreat on the situation report monitor behind his desk. Keeper did not seem entirely pleased with her solution. She could not shake the feeling she had been considering the wrong set of inputs and outcomes.
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