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Managuense's Avatar

11.16.2012 , 07:44 PM | #831
[QUOTE=DarthRaika;5421047]manag dude the 4 in the premade don't count since you said you are as likely to end up on a premade side than not. No, if you are a pug you are less likely to end up on the premade team than on the pug team in the example I gave.


Ok this is your example:

Quote: Originally Posted by DarthRaika

Manag....16 players q up. 8 imps 8 pubs. 4 people are a premade 12 are puggers. 8 are sad 4 are happy. not 50/50 buddy.

It's elementary statistics. Using Bayes theorem, given that there is one premade (group of 4), the chance that the premade is on your side is 50%.

Also, I assert that the four in the premade do count, and they're happy too. That makes 8 happy, 8 sad.