So to go with your point: "Where will I get the most for my money?"
From tomorrow, TOR. Because you get a full levelling experience without paying a single dollar. What you do after that, is the consumer's own decision again. But new customers will not go to WoW because it is too much to get into these days, and then they will choose between GW2 (which is also doing far worse than many here claim) and spend 60 bucks to get in and then nothing anymore for a rather bland experience, or they will pay nothing for TOR, get a nice levelling experience and then either stick around or head over to another game.
Yeah, more or less, though WoW isn't any harder to get into than SWTOR (it's pretty much the same mechanics)! I'm not saying SWTOR is going to fail. My post on the last page was almost entirely about the potential F2P holds for the game, and how bright the future is! The poster above just decided to quote me on calling the "WoW has a seven year advantage" argument rubbish. Which I still firmly believe is rubbish, because that's not how competition works. Consumers will, usually, pay for whatever gives them the most for their money. For some, the Star Wars universe or the voice acting is enough to make SWTOR stand out as the best. But for most, it isn't.
As for your claim that few people are starting WoW these days, my girlfriend started WoW when Cataclysm launched and still plays Mists of Pandaria today. I haven't played MoP myself, but the game looks incredibly polished for an MMO. Sadly, you're right, and most ex-WoW players want something now. We don't want to go back to the same game we've been playing for so long.
And that is exactly why I want EA to reinvest in SWTOR, and for Bioware to implement some drastic new content with something unique. Because SWTOR is just too damn similar to WoW. Especially when you compare some of its mechanics like each class having dozens of skills and items filling up three or four hotbars; mobs that "tag" to each player; quest items that aren't unique to players, leading to competition for items and theft (when you're killing a group of mobs guarding a quest item, and another player waltzes in and steals the quest item while you're in combat); standard linear quest mechanics without any real decisions (though Flashpoints have some great decisions sometimes - why isn't that approach used in single player quests?); Warzones being exactly the same as Battlegrounds; etc.
Those mechanics have all been revolutionized by GW2 to create a far more entertaining play experience, that encourages players to work together and help each other without any drawbacks. In SWTOR I see other players from my faction as competition - vying for the same mobs and quest items as I am. In GW2 I see them as allies. If I see someone fighting a group of mobs in SWTOR or WoW I think "better not interfere, I don't want to leech", whereas in GW2 I think "better help him out!" Playing GW2 makes you realize how dated and senseless some of these common mechanics are.
I love SWTOR for its strengths, since the storylines are fantastic. And I really do want F2P to work out. But for the exact reasons you pointed out that WoW isn't getting many new players, SWTOR faces the same issues. It's too much of the same, with absolutely nothing unique past the voice acting. And even that is being done in other MMOs now. I really hope Bioware cleans the game up, solves the remaining performance issues, overhauls the core mechanics regarding mob tagging and quest items, and implements some decent content that is genuinely unique (like open space, so far only EVE does it, and that's not a game for a casual crowd).