Yeah if we assumed that you died after 10 unmitigated hits that would be a correct assumption. Given that its across 20 seconds my calculations were more geared to showing how often it occurs without killing you.
Likewise, I'd like to know what we're doing wrong with the calculations. I just don't get why its giving us <0.1% probability per fight, yet showing up approximately/at least once every 3 weeks (30 fights). My brain hurts at this stage so I'm gonna take a break and look at it again in the morning.
I have since realised where my error was. I was considering a probability of 0.178 as 0.178% and 0.082 as 0.082%. Once I realised I was doing this wrong and the per fight probability was actually 17.8% and 8.2% respectively the rest of the numbers make sense.
Summary of numbers using 10 hits:
- Chance to see per fight assuming X hits = X - 9 Worst case strings: 8.2%
- Chance to see per fight assuming only discreet strings of 10 hits: 4.4%
- Chance to see it in a given week*: 36.24%
All of those are consistent with my simulation that had it occurring ~19 weeks of the year.
*NB: This was assuming only "progression level" content. That is a weekly clear of TFB HM, EC HM and NP. For a total of 10 bosses. The more you do the higher the chance and the less you do the lower.