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Banegio
11.01.2012 , 06:04 PM | #23
There maybe no "the probability of continued failure" but there is "the probability of continuious failure". We are talking about future events.

"The odds that one will get at least 1 schem" will always be less than 100% regardless of the number of RE.

When the number of RE approaches infinity, "the odds that one will get at least 1 schem" becomes closer to 100%

http://i48.tinypic.com/v2r9yw.jpg

The following table may mean nothing or it may help some to visualize.

Code:
Roll1	Roll2	Roll3	Roll4	Roll5		Pr
0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8		0.32768
0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.2		0.08192
0.8	0.8	0.8	0.2	0.8		0.08192
0.8	0.8	0.8	0.2	0.2		0.02048
0.8	0.8	0.2	0.8	0.8		0.08192
0.8	0.8	0.2	0.8	0.2		0.02048
0.8	0.8	0.2	0.2	0.8		0.02048
0.8	0.8	0.2	0.2	0.2		0.00512
0.8	0.2	0.8	0.8	0.8		0.08192
0.8	0.2	0.8	0.8	0.2		0.02048
0.8	0.2	0.8	0.2	0.8		0.02048
0.8	0.2	0.8	0.2	0.2		0.00512
0.8	0.2	0.2	0.8	0.8		0.02048
0.8	0.2	0.2	0.8	0.2		0.00512
0.8	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.8		0.00512
0.8	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2		0.00128
0.2	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8		0.08192
0.2	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.2		0.02048
0.2	0.8	0.8	0.2	0.8		0.02048
0.2	0.8	0.8	0.2	0.2		0.00512
0.2	0.8	0.2	0.8	0.8		0.02048
0.2	0.8	0.2	0.8	0.2		0.00512
0.2	0.8	0.2	0.2	0.8		0.00512
0.2	0.8	0.2	0.2	0.2		0.00128
0.2	0.2	0.8	0.8	0.8		0.02048
0.2	0.2	0.8	0.8	0.2		0.00512
0.2	0.2	0.8	0.2	0.8		0.00512
0.2	0.2	0.8	0.2	0.2		0.00128
0.2	0.2	0.2	0.8	0.8		0.00512
0.2	0.2	0.2	0.8	0.2		0.00128
0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.8		0.00128
0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2		0.00032
						
						1
Note statisics is all theoretical. It is possible to fail million times in a row even the probability of a single success is 99.9999999%. Statisics become accurate when the number of events approaches infinity