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ML_DoubleTap's Avatar

11.01.2012 , 01:49 PM | #19
Quote: Originally Posted by GnatB View Post
Not really. It's unlikely you'll go on a long streak of failures, but just because you HAVE gone on a long streak of failures in no way impacts the odds of future success.

Here's a depressing thought for all you crafters. For those 10% success items, the odds of getting a success on your next attempt (10%) is just about the same as the odds your next attempt will be the first in a string of 22 failures. (9.8%)

Each and every time you RE. Depressed much?

edit: and P.S. My suggestion is whenever possible, never try to RE a single item at a time. Set up 5 *different* items in your crafting queue(s), so you aren't wasting mats if you happen to get the RE after the first one... and so you aren't wasting time changing characters so often by only having 1 item in the queue. Only when you're down to very few worthwhile schematics left to learn should you be either doing multiples of 1, or only having 1 item in the queue.
Even MORE depressing is if you are chasing specific schematics. So, for tier 1(overkill,critical,redoubt) you have a 1 in 5 chance of simply learning a schematic and then a 1 in 3 chance of learning the one you want. So, if you are chasing an overkill chest piece you have a 1/15 chance of getting it per attempt, or a 93.3% chance of failure. So to get a specific item, it would take 24 times to tip the odds in your favor...of course that assuming you can relearn the same schematic which they fortunately fixed a while back. Being nearly 7 years removed from my now unused math major I can't remember how to work the probability without replacement on the second event.