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grallmate
10.28.2012 , 09:43 PM | #2
Overall, I agree. My only disagreement is on the progression point.

As tanks, you and I, may not take much extra damage during progression. We have sufficient mitigation to handle a few extra hits from a circle or what have you and most mechanic based things are one-shots. On the other hand, DPS can take a serious beating if they aren't performing their mechanics properly and can chew up a sizeable share of the healer's time during which, increased TTL is great.

However, I'm of the opinion that mitigation is generally the better option than endurance for the above scenario. I mean, what are the odds of the 10 hits coinciding with a DPS standing in the stupid and the raid still succeeding?

I'd also suggest tweaking the 'death threshold' to 9 unmitigated hits. Given that even if the 10th hit is shielded (but not when defended) it is still going to kill the tank. Arguably, shielding 1 hit and not defending any in a period of 10 hits is still going to kill you, be it the first, middle or last hit. But for the sake of simplicity I'd stay with 9 sequential unmitigated hits. This gives a probability of 0.00091321.

I think you've made an error using 19.5 distinct time periods as well, the chance of seeing the worst case scenario is much higher than you have stated. It is possible for a string of hits to occur at any point after the last mitigated swing providing that there are still a sufficient number of swings remaining in the encounter.

Given the average encounter (using your numbers) has 195 swings, the string must begin before or on the 186th swing. as such, the probability of it not occurring in the hypothetical average fight is more like:
0.99908679 ^ 186 = 0.84372028
This gives a 0.15627972 chance of a string of 9 unmitigated hits occurring in an average fight. As such, doing 10 bosses a week you have about an 80% chance to see it each week. However, as Tam sated, its not really noticeable most of the time.

I do feel the need to say I am not 100% confident in my formula above. The problem is MUCH MUCH more complicated than it appears.

On another note, I also feel this discussion benefits more from keeping E/I eHP and K/E eHP separate since eHP has much much greater value in E/I heavy fights. Not to the point that I would ignore mitigation, but the relative value is definitely skewed. Although I do see the benefits of using a hybridised figure for fights that use both damage types relatively evenly (up to about 70:30 split), but I'd personally calculate it on an encounter by encounter basis using the excellent spreadsheets you've provided.
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