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UltimateLemon
07.10.2012 , 11:33 PM | #20
Quote: Originally Posted by Superpasta View Post
Let put it the other way, you don't get 20% chance of each try to success.

You are getting 80% chance of each try to fail.

So instead of 20% x 5 = 100% success in RE. You are facing 80% x 5 = 400% FAIL!!! in RE.

Does it make you feel you were actually very very luck to sucess in only 1 out of 10 attempts now???
That's still not true. In order for 5 tries of 20% to beome 100%, you have to eliminate tried choice.

For example, let's say there are 5 numbers; 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. You have 20% probability of picking 5. If I pick 2 then I'm within the 80% failure bracket. If I put 2 back to the mix, I still have 20% probability of picking 5. If I remove 2, then I have 25% chance of picking 5.

In this case, we are putting the 2 back into the mix. So you will ALWAYS have 20% chance of picking 5. In theory if I pick enough times, I SHOULD have 20% success rate. However, this isn't really guaranteed. Refer to Law of large numbers.