, 12:15 AM
The changes to the mean mitigation section look good, except that you're using the first formula I posted for crits, which is wrong.
In that formula, "(1-B)" is directly multiplied by "(1+.5*.25)" which is the crit chance and damage part. So you've got the chance to not shield an attack times crit stuff. This means that this formula works if and only if increasing your shield chance automatically decrease how much damage you take from crits, and we know that it doesn't.
The formula that's correct is 1-(1-A)(1-D)(B*(1-C)+1-B+X*(Y-1)) = Mean Mitigation
Where Y is the crit damage multiplier (ie 1.5 if the mob has 0 surge).
Note that in this formula, 1-B is not multiplied by the crit stuff (X*(Y-1)). If you are confident that crit damage from mobs is always 150% of non-crits (and it may be, I really have no idea), then you can replace the (Y-1) with .5.
For completeness, here's what the newest formula says when broken down.
* All attacks have to deal with (1-A) and (1-D), which means that all attacks can be shielded or mitigated, unless those variables are set to zero of course.
* Attacks which are not avoided are either shielded, a crit, or neither. B*(1-C) deals with shielded attacks, 1-B deals with normal attacks, and X*(Y-1) deals with crit attacks by adding the extra damage that occurs over and above a normal attack.
Or, you could break it down like this:
B*(1-C) = M = mean percent unmitigated damage of non-avoided, shielded attacks before DR
1-B = N = mean percent unmitigated damage of non-avoided, non-shielded attacks before DR and crits
X*(Y-1) = P = mean percent unmitigated damage of non-avoided crits before DR, minus N
M + N + P = Q = mean unmitigated percent damage of all non-avoided attacks before DR
(1-A)(1-D)*Q = R = mean unmitigated percent damage of all attacks after avoidance and DR
1 - R = 1-(1-A)(1-D)(B*(1-C)+1-B+X*(Y-1)) = mean mitigated percent damage from all attacks
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