I like your math and all... but sources of the numbers or just something that feels right?
SR posted yesterday the reason why they are not telling anyone how many they invite each wave or tell people how many pre-orders that has been sold.
Therefor nobody should know the numbers even if you pinpoint them down to "22,868".
In the last Dev Post (If you look at the Dev Tracker) It's said that "Tomorrow, we're going to be inviting the same number of people again; that will take us up to the last week or so of November. On Friday, we'll be inviting even more"
So they will send out October/November tomorrow, That means December on Friday.